Prediction Accuracy

MartialBot's pre-fight picks, scored live against actual MMA results. Every bout below shows the pick the model published before the fight.

Last 365 daysOct 4, 2025 – Oct 3, 2026

68.3%

of picks called the winner

+0.1 pts vs model test (68.2%) · log loss 0.610 (test 0.603)

464

fights scored

events

317 hits147 misses

6 draws or no contests not scored — there was no winner to call.

Picks by confidence

One mark per pick at the favorite's predicted win probability — misses stack on top.

hitmiss

50%60708090100%

Picks by event

Newest first, predicted bouts in card order. The model's pick is in bold — bold on the left means it called the winner.

hit miss not scored (draw/NC)

UFC 332

Oct 3 · 8/10

Natália Silva def. Wang CongUD · 67.11%

Payton Talbott def. Deiveson FigueiredoTKO R1 · 74.47%

Esteban Ribovics def. King GreenTKO R1 · 69.56%

Roberto Soldić def. Khaos WilliamsUD · 62.23%

Roman Kopylov def. Ateba GautierTKO R1 · 55.32%

Damian Pinas def. Andrey PulyaevKO R1 · 77.48%

Johnny Walker def. Mick ParkinKO R1 · 60.97%

Alexander Hernandez def. Rafael dos AnjosTKO R2 · 82.77%

Ismail Naurdiev def. Marvin VettoriUD · 53.78%

Eric Nolan def. Court McGeeKO R3 · 62.56%

UFC Fight Night 289

Sep 26 · 5/10

Raul Rosas Jr. def. Raoni BarcelosKO R5 · 50.40%

Ailín Pérez def. Norma DumontUD · 72.86%

Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu def. Mehemmedeli OsmanliR1 · 62.55%

Valesca Machado def. Melissa AmayaTKO R2 · 51.81%

Brady Hiestand def. Rinya NakamuraSUB R2 · 53.19%

Rodolfo Vieira def. Robert BryczekUD · 52.09%

Elves Brener def. Josiah HarrellTKO R1 · 61.37%

Montel Jackson def. Ricky SimónTKO R2 · 56.13%

Alateng Heili def. John CastañedaUD · 66.99%

Yazmin Jauregui def. Vanessa DemopoulosKO R1 · 68.29%

UFC 331

Sep 19 · 7/11

Joshua Van def. Alexandre PantojaUD · 65.49%

Arman Tsarukyan def. Maurício RuffyKO R1 · 65.64%

Patrício Pitbull def. Choi Doo-hoTKO R1 · 63.03%

Sean Sharaf def. Gable StevesonKO R1 · 76.95%

Alonzo Menifield def. Iwo BaraniewskiUD · 71.64%

Marlon Vera def. Charles JourdainTKO R3 · 54.62%

Robelis Despaigne def. Tai TuivasaUD · 59.20%

Ryan Gandra def. Osman DiazTKO R1 · 73.58%

Edmen Shahbazyan def. Brunno FerreiraUD · 62.83%

Casey O'Neill def. Eduarda MouraSUB R1 · 73.56%

Joanderson Brito def. Giga ChikadzeKO R1 · 76.73%

UFC Fight Night 288

Sep 12 · 9/12

Jean Silva def. Jose Miguel DelgadoSUB R3 · 52.14%

Brandon Moreno def. Joseph MoralesUD · 55.88%

Tommy McMillen def. Marwan RahikiUD · 51.47%

Alexa Grasso def. Manon FiorotUD · 50.16%

Curtis Blaydes def. Waldo Cortes-AcostaUD · 69.84%

David Martínez def. Dan IgeUD · 75.50%

Tim Elliott def. Édgar CháirezUD · 73.79%

Ignacio Bahamondes def. Muslim SalikhovUD · 82.58%

Yousri Belgaroui def. Djorden SantosTKO R1 · 63.18%

Thomas Gantt def. Drakkar KloseSUB R3 · 64.94%

Rong Zhu def. Rafa GarcíaUD · 57.59%

Regina Tarín def. JJ AldrichUD · 58.30%

Super RIZIN 5: Naniwa No Chou Fukkatsu Matsuri

Sep 10 · 1/2

Razhabali Shaydullaev def. A. J. McKeeUD · 50.92%

Mikuru Asakura def. Shinya AokiTKO R1 · 73.51%

UFC Fight Night 287

Sep 5 · 6/11

Salahdine Parnasse def. Dan HookerTKO R1 · 79.17%

Axel Sola def. Farès ZiamKO R1 · 68.18%

Michael Page def. Nursulton RuziboevUD · 60.35%

Daniil Donchenko def. Punahele SorianoUD · 60.63%

Kurtis Campbell def. Trevor PeekSUB R3 · 68.55%

Losene Keita def. Muhammad NaimovKO R1 · 66.46%

Felipe Lima def. Morgan CharrièreUD · 72.80%

Mário Pinto def. Ryan SpannTKO R2 · 70.43%

Modestas Bukauskas def. Oumar SyTKO R2 · 56.43%

Pavel Andrusca def. Nathaniel WoodUD · 59.74%

Nora Cornolle def. Klaudia SygułaUD · 59.96%

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Aug 29 · 7/10

Song Yadong def. Umar NurmagomedovKO R2 · 67.88%

Denise Gomes def. Yan XiaonanKO R1 · 77.47%

Kai Asakura def. Aori QilengTKO R2 · 63.69%

Su Mudaerji def. Alex PerezUD · 70.92%

Liu Ce def. Levi Rodrigues Jr.KO R1 · 54.07%

Bilal Hasan def. Nilson RojasKO R2 · 64.88%

André Lima def. Namsrai BatbayarSUB R3 · 59.89%

Rei Tsuruya def. Kevin BorjasSUB R1 · 61.14%

Sean Woodson def. Jack JenkinsUD · 69.87%

Julia Polastri def. Xiong JingnanKO R1 · 58.78%

PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira

Aug 22 · 4/5

Cris Cyborg def. Ketlen VieiraUD · 61.66%

Gadzhi Rabadanov def. Tracy ReederTKO R1 · 66.84%

Sabrinna de Sousa def. Taila SantosUD · 54.52%

Daniel Marcos def. Magomed MagomedovTKO R3 · 76.87%

Dakota Bush def. Morquez ForestUD · 57.80%

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Aug 22 · 6/11

Gregory Rodrigues def. Anthony HernandezUD · 61.54%

Vitor Petrino def. Serghei SpivacUD · 70.49%

Reinier de Ridder def. Roman DolidzeTKO R1 · 56.89%

MarQuel Mederos def. Mason JonesTKO R2 · 65.10%

Carli Judice def. Jeisla ChavesTKO R1 · 53.68%

Jamall Emmers def. Lerryan DouglasTKO R1 · 52.80%

Shamil Gaziev def. Kennedy NzechukwuKO R1 · 64.87%

Chris Padilla def. Nasrat HaqparastCKO R3 · 56.46%

Stanley Dorsainvil def. Gauge YoungUD · 59.96%

Jackson McVey def. Wes SchultzTKO R1 · 63.48%

Shanelle Dyer def. Elise ReedTKO R3 · 75.73%

UFC 330

Aug 15 · 6/12

Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado GarryUD · 74.83%

Mackenzie Dern def. Gillian RobertsonUD · 66.80%

Jalin Turner def. Kauê FernandesKO R1 · 50.98%

Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-MalikSUB R2 · 69.04%

Esteban Ribovics def. Edson BarbozaTKO R2 · 70.22%

Chidi Njokuani def. Joel ÁlvarezUD · 80.05%

Charles Johnson def. Eduardo HenriqueSUB R3 · 55.65%

Donte Johnson def. Eric McConico Jr.KO R1 · 77.91%

Tresean Gore def. Vicente LuqueUD · 59.54%

Lucas Fernando def. Rafael TobiasTKO R3 · 53.56%

Neil Magny def. Ramiz BrahimajTKO R2 · 68.38%

Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek OrolbaiCKO R3 · 76.52%

UFC Fight Night 284

Aug 8 · 6/7

Quillan Salkilld def. Mateusz GamrotSUB R1 · 61.91%

Carlos Diego Ferreira def. Billy QuarantilloUD · 55.45%

Yadier del Valle def. Darren ElkinsTKO R1 · 69.87%

Alexia Thainara def. Amanda LemosUD · 70.85%

Ty Miller def. Billy Ray GoffTKO R3 · 73.33%

José Luiz def. Louie SutherlandSUB R1 · 56.05%

Miles Johns def. Gianni VázquezTKO R1 · 59.22%

PFL Charlotte: Battle vs. Rosta

Aug 7 · 4/5

Bryan Battle def. Dalton RostaUD · 68.33%

Simeon Powell def. Dovletdzhan YagshimuradovUD · 66.49%

Lewis McGrillen def. Brandon LewisUD · 63.17%

Denis Goltsov def. Hasan MezhievTKO R1 · 55.77%

Bruno Cappelozza def. Valentin MoldavskyUD · 63.77%

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

Aug 1 · 6/8

Uroš Medić def. Daniel RodriguezTKO R1 · 50.77%

Navajo Stirling def. Jan BłachowiczTKO R1 · 74.09%

Aleksandar Rakić def. Marcin TyburaUD · 60.82%

Robert Valentin def. Duško TodorovićSUB R1 · 51.25%

Noah Gugnon def. Miloš JaničićSUB R1 · 51.87%

Tofiq Musayev def. Ľudovít KleinTKO R2 · 69.11%

Michael Oliveira def. Oban ElliottTKO R1 · 64.75%

Mateusz Rębecki def. Kyle PrepolecTKO R1 · 68.28%

PFL New York: Nurmagomedov vs. Colgan

Jul 31 · 5/5

Usman Nurmagomedov def. Archie ColganKO R1 · 78.62%

Dakota Ditcheva def. Denise KielholtzUD · 77.89%

Amru Magomedov def. Angel AlvarezTKO R2 · 65.22%

Lázaro Dayron def. Raufeon StotsUD · 66.19%

Tatiana Postarnakova def. Montana De La RosaUD · 61.61%

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

Jul 25 · 7/11

Magomed Ankalaev def. Bogdan GuskovTKO R5 · 71.20%

Ramazan Temirov def. Steve ErcegKO R1 · 68.21%

Magomed Zaynukov def. Damian RzepeckiUD · 69.89%

Rizvan Kuniev def. Tyrell FortuneTKO R3 · 64.64%

Abubakar Vagaev def. Saygid IzagakhmaevUD · 66.78%

Valter Walker def. Thomas PetersenSUB R1 · 80.45%

Muhammad Saidov def. Dustin JacobyTKO R2 · 50.66%

Sam Patterson def. Santiago PonzinibbioTKO R2 · 70.20%

Axel Sola def. Ismael BonfimSUB R1 · 66.69%

Nurullo Aliev def. Mike DavisUD · 62.68%

Abdul Hussein def. Cody GibsonSUB R3 · 69.47%

PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Rodriguez

Jul 25 · 2/4

Thad Jean def. Ernesto RodriguezTKO R3 · 64.08%

Rafael Xavier def. Tyson PedroTKO R1 · 63.60%

Rasul Magomedov def. Sullivan CauleyUD · 59.20%

Bryce Meredith def. Michael CyrUD · 58.03%

PFL Austin: Eblen vs. Kasanganay 2

Jul 18 · 3/4

Johnny Eblen def. Impa KasanganayKO R3 · 68.54%

Rafael do Nascimento def. Lewis McGrillenSUB R2 · 53.02%

Julio Arce def. Caolán LoughranUD · 62.26%

Jesus Pinedo def. Joey RuquetTKO R1 · 82.53%

UFC Fight Night 281

Jul 18 · 7/8

Dricus du Plessis def. Kamaru UsmanUD · 63.99%

Christian Leroy Duncan def. Jared CannonierUD · 79.36%

Chase Hooper def. Mitch RamirezSUB R1 · 84.89%

Fatima Kline def. Tabatha RicciUD · 63.48%

Tommy McMillen def. Alberto MontesTKO R3 · 62.70%

Jose Miguel Delgado def. Austin BashiUD · 51.57%

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani def. Ko Seok-hyeonUD · 56.85%

Felipe Franco def. Levi Rodrigues Jr.TKO R2 · 53.14%

UFC 329

Jul 11 · 11/14

Max Holloway def. Conor McGregorTKO R1 · 73.85%

Paddy Pimblett def. Benoît Saint DenisCKO R1 · 50.52%

Mario Bautista def. Cory SandhagenUD · 65.62%

Brandon Royval def. Lone'er KavanaghSUB R3 · 67.07%

King Green def. Terrance McKinneyTKO R1 · 54.78%

Robert Whittaker def. Nikita KrylovTKO R3 · 57.54%

Gable Steveson def. Elisha EllisonKO R1 · 62.31%

Adrian Yañez def. Cody GarbrandtTKO R1 · 64.40%

Luke Riley def. Kai Kamaka IIITKO R1 · 55.12%

Wang Cong def. Tracy CortezUD · 51.74%

Damian Pinas def. César AlmeidaKO R1 · 73.36%

Farid Basharat def. John GarzaUD · 61.19%

Ryan Gandra def. Zachary ReeseTKO R1 · 51.48%

Alessandro Costa def. Cody DurdenSUB R2 · 62.15%

PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev

Jun 27 · 5/7

A. J. McKee def. Salamat IsbulaevUD · 74.25%

Liz Carmouche def. Viviane AraújoSUB R2 · 57.62%

Alexandr Shabliy def. Alfie DavisUD · 60.44%

Rob Wilkinson def. Abraham BablyTKO R2 · 56.58%

Khasan Magomedsharipov def. Joshua WeemsSUB R1 · 71.64%

Jena Bishop def. Ariane Lipski da SilvaSUB R1 · 64.02%

Shannon Clark def. Ilara JoanneTKO R3 · 56.86%

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres

Jun 27 · 8/11

Rafael Fiziev def. Manuel TorresKO R2 · 57.85%

Sharabutdin Magomedov def. Michel PereiraUD · 57.03%

Matheus Camilo def. Nazim SadykhovTKO R1 · 51.19%

Asu Almabayev def. Charles JohnsonSUB R3 · 59.88%

Ikram Aliskerov def. Brunno FerreiraUD · 73.06%

Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Michał OleksiejczukSUB R1 · 62.25%

Farman Hasanov def. Eric NolanUD · 59.18%

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Julius WalkerKO R1 · 66.52%

Nursulton Ruziboev def. Andrey PulyaevCKO R1 · 64.33%

Kaan Ofli def. Javier ReyesSUB R1 · 53.03%

Jean Matsumoto def. Bekzat AlmakhanUD · 54.89%

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Jun 20 · 8/9

Manel Kape def. Kyoji HoriguchiTKO R3 · 57.17%

Navajo Stirling def. Ion CuțelabaTKO R2 · 64.02%

Christian Rodriguez def. Hyder AmilCKO R1 · 68.64%

Murtazali Magomedov def. Melsik BaghdasaryanSUB R1 · 78.23%

Vinicius Oliveira def. Andre FiliTKO R2 · 65.75%

Kevin Borjas def. André LimaUD · 57.11%

Beatriz Mesquita def. Melissa MullinsSUB R1 · 57.58%

Levan Chokheli def. Leon ShahbazyanTKO R1 · 59.89%

Luana Santos def. Karol RosaUD · 74.78%

UFC Freedom 250

Jun 14 · 7/7

Justin Gaethje def. Ilia TopuriaTKO R4 · 54.03%

Ciryl Gane def. Alex PereiraTKO R2 · 54.32%

Sean O'Malley def. Aiemann ZahabiTKO R2 · 63.34%

Josh Hokit def. Derrick LewisTKO R2 · 62.54%

Maurício Ruffy def. Michael ChandlerTKO R1 · 81.78%

Bo Nickal def. Kyle DaukausTKO R1 · 67.20%

Diego Lopes def. Steve GarciaKO R2 · 50.13%

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Jun 6 · 9/11

Gabriel Bonfim def. Belal MuhammadUD · 51.26%

Brendan Allen def. Edmen ShahbazyanUD · 67.32%

Tom Nolan def. Farès ZiamUD · 76.80%

Bryce Mitchell def. Santiago LunaSUB R3 · 53.16%

Iwo Baraniewski def. Junior TafaTKO R1 · 75.64%

Alessandro Costa def. Matt SchnellTKO R1 · 72.71%

Marcus McGhee def. John YannisUD · 55.30%

Édgar Cháirez def. Bruno Gustavo da SilvaSUB R1 · 67.69%

Chelsea Chandler def. Priscila CachoeiraSUB R1 · 66.07%

Joanderson Brito def. Jordan LeavittSUB R1 · 54.44%

Ketlen Souza def. Ariane CarnelossiKO R1 · 67.97%

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

May 30 · 4/6

Song Yadong def. Deiveson FigueiredoSUB R2 · 65.11%

Alonzo Menifield def. Zhang MingyangTKO R1 · 71.12%

Sergei Pavlovich def. Tallison TeixeiraKO R1 · 57.05%

Kai Asakura def. Cameron SmothermanKO R1 · 55.23%

Jake Matthews def. Carlston HarrisUD · 75.39%

Alex Perez vs Su Mudaerji · No contestR2 · 71.27%

Angela Hill def. Xiong JingnanUD · 65.61%

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

May 16 · 0/4

Arnold Allen def. Melquizael CostaUD · 59.32%

Choi Doo-ho def. Daniel SantosTKO R2 · 67.11%

Ketlen Vieira def. Jacqueline CavalcantiUD · 72.63%

Cody Brundage def. Andre PetroskiTKO R2 · 54.40%

MVP MMA 1: Rousey vs. Carano

May 16 · 3/4

Ronda Rousey def. Gina CaranoSUB R1 · 83.21%

Mike Perry def. Nate DiazTKO R2 · 54.46%

Francis Ngannou def. Philipe LinsKO R1 · 80.75%

Robelis Despaigne def. Junior dos SantosKO R1 · 67.47%

UFC 328

May 9 · 8/11

Sean Strickland def. Khamzat ChimaevUD · 60.57%

Joshua Van def. Tatsuro TairaTKO R5 · 51.47%

Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-AcostaUD · 66.35%

Sean Brady def. Joaquin BuckleyUD · 57.80%

King Green def. Jeremy StephensSUB R1 · 73.51%

Ateba Gautier def. Osman DiazTKO R2 · 78.94%

Yaroslav Amosov def. Joel ÁlvarezSUB R2 · 51.58%

Grant Dawson def. Mateusz RębeckiSUB R3 · 68.61%

Jim Miller def. Jared GordonSUB R1 · 56.77%

Roman Kopylov def. Marco TulioUD · 68.66%

Baisangur Susurkaev def. Djorden SantosCKO R3 · 74.81%

PFL Sioux Falls: Storley vs. Zendeli

May 2 · 4/4

Logan Storley def. Florim ZendeliUD · 50.37%

Simeon Powell def. Emiliano SordiTKO R3 · 73.71%

Magomed Magomedov def. Leandro HigoUD · 57.01%

Rasul Magomedov def. Rafael XavierUD · 64.24%

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

May 2 · 6/8

Carlos Prates def. Jack Della MaddalenaTKO R3 · 59.33%

Quillan Salkilld def. Beneil DariushTKO R1 · 88.26%

Steve Erceg def. Tim ElliottUD · 71.95%

Louie Sutherland def. Tai TuivasaUD · 52.89%

Cameron Rowston def. Robert BryczekUD · 61.13%

Jacob Malkoun def. Gerald MeerschaertUD · 83.59%

Colby Thicknesse def. Vince MoralesUD · 60.11%

Jonathan Micallef def. Themba GorimboUD · 62.68%

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

Apr 25 · 4/8

Aljamain Sterling def. Youssef ZalalUD · 57.41%

Joselyne Edwards def. Norma DumontUD · 65.91%

Rafa García def. Alexander HernandezUD · 59.69%

Raoni Barcelos def. Montel JacksonUD · 60.55%

Ryan Spann def. Marcus BuchechaKO R2 · 58.73%

Eric McConico def. Rodolfo VieiraUD · 58.88%

Jackson McVey def. Sedriques DumasSUB R1 · 62.11%

Talita Alencar def. Julia PolastriUD · 52.18%

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

Apr 18 · 4/6

Mike Malott def. Gilbert BurnsTKO R3 · 78.51%

Charles Jourdain def. Kyler PhillipsUD · 57.28%

Jai Herbert def. Mandel NalloTKO R1 · 56.29%

Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Karine SilvaUD · 54.27%

Gauge Young def. Thiago MoisésUD · 52.50%

JJ Aldrich def. Jamey-Lyn HorthUD · 51.61%

UFC 327

Apr 11 · 2/10

Carlos Ulberg def. Jiří ProcházkaKO R1 · 52.05%

Paulo Costa def. Azamat MurzakanovTKO R3 · 60.55%

Josh Hokit def. Curtis BlaydesUD · 50.30%

Dominick Reyes def. Johnny WalkerUD · 60.05%

Cub Swanson def. Nate LandwehrTKO R1 · 68.10%

Aaron Pico def. Patrício PitbullUD · 56.86%

Kevin Holland def. Randy BrownUD · 50.79%

Mateusz Gamrot def. Esteban RibovicsSUB R2 · 52.66%

Tatiana Suarez def. Loopy GodínezSUB R2 · 70.84%

Chris Padilla vs MarQuel Mederos · DrawR3 · 63.17%

Vicente Luque def. Kelvin GastelumSUB R1 · 58.09%

PFL Chicago: Pettis vs. McKee

Apr 11 · 3/3

Viviane Araújo def. Shanna YoungUD · 57.10%

Paulina Wiśniewska def. Kana WatanabeTKO R2 · 73.95%

Alexander Romanov def. Rodrigo NascimentoSUB R2 · 60.16%

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

Apr 4 · 2/6

Renato Moicano def. Chris DuncanSUB R2 · 65.29%

Virna Jandiroba def. Tabatha RicciUD · 50.37%

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Brendson RibeiroSUB R1 · 76.37%

Ethyn Ewing def. Rafael EstevamKO R3 · 56.19%

Darrius Flowers def. Lando VannataTKO R2 · 51.57%

Tresean Gore def. Azamat BekoevCKO R3 · 65.92%

PFL Pittsburgh: Eblen vs. Battle

Mar 28 · 2/4

Johnny Eblen def. Bryan BattleSUB R1 · 52.00%

Impa Kasanganay def. Dalton RostaKO R1 · 50.87%

Ariane da Silva def. Sumiko InabaUD · 52.32%

Jakub Kaszuba def. Natan SchulteUD · 54.38%

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Mar 28 · 5/9

Joe Pyfer def. Israel AdesanyaTKO R2 · 66.00%

Alexa Grasso def. Maycee BarberKO R1 · 77.51%

Michael Chiesa def. Niko PriceSUB R1 · 67.32%

Lerryan Douglas def. Julian ErosaKO R1 · 50.95%

Yousri Belgaroui def. Mansur Abdul-MalikTKO R3 · 61.08%

Terrance McKinney def. Kyle NelsonTKO R1 · 59.79%

Tofiq Musayev def. Ignacio BahamondesUD · 80.55%

Tyrell Fortune def. Marcin TyburaUD · 56.47%

Casey O'Neill def. Gabriella FernandesKO R1 · 65.50%

Ricky Simón vs Adrian Yañez · DrawR3 · 58.74%

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy

Mar 21 · 7/7

Movsar Evloev def. Lerone MurphyUD · 52.18%

Michael Page def. Sam PattersonUD · 59.96%

Iwo Baraniewski def. Austen LaneTKO R1 · 83.91%

Christian Leroy Duncan def. Roman DolidzeUD · 63.97%

Mason Jones def. Axel SolaUD · 64.11%

Nathaniel Wood def. Losene KeitaUD · 65.90%

Mário Pinto def. Felipe FrancoUD · 63.39%

PFL Madrid: van Steenis vs. Edwards 2

Mar 20 · 1/2

Costello van Steenis def. Fabian EdwardsKO R3 · 54.90%

A. J. McKee def. Ádám BoricsUD · 76.75%

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos

Mar 14 · 7/8

Kevin Vallejos def. Josh EmmettTKO R1 · 77.68%

Gillian Robertson def. Amanda LemosUD · 66.70%

Jose Miguel Delgado def. Andre FiliUD · 66.99%

Ion Cuțelaba def. Oumar SySUB R1 · 76.46%

Charles Johnson def. Bruno Gustavo da SilvaUD · 56.18%

Myktybek Orolbai def. Chris CurtisUD · 64.91%

Vitor Petrino def. Steven AsplundUD · 63.81%

Eryk Anders def. Brad TavaresUD · 69.75%

UFC 326

Mar 7 · 4/7

Charles Oliveira def. Max HollowayUD · 65.00%

Caio Borralho def. Reinier de RidderUD · 60.07%

Raul Rosas Jr. def. Rob FontUD · 54.02%

Drew Dober def. Michael JohnsonKO R2 · 52.71%

Gregory Rodrigues def. Brunno FerreiraKO R1 · 52.55%

Donte Johnson def. Cody BrundageUD · 74.76%

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel def. Cody DurdenUD · 74.95%

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

Feb 28 · 5/7

Lone'er Kavanagh def. Brandon MorenoUD · 63.92%

David Martínez def. Marlon VeraUD · 59.82%

King Green def. Daniel ZellhuberTKO R2 · 82.85%

Ailín Pérez def. Macy ChiassonUD · 58.99%

Javier Reyes def. Douglas Silva de AndradeTKO R1 · 66.74%

Regina Tarín def. Ernesta KareckaitėUD · 55.61%

Damian Pinas def. Wesley SchultzTKO R1 · 68.70%

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez

Feb 21 · 7/11

Sean Strickland def. Anthony HernandezTKO R3 · 78.90%

Uroš Medić def. Geoff NealKO R1 · 50.23%

Melquizael Costa def. Dan IgeTKO R1 · 65.98%

Serghei Spivac def. Ante DelijaUD · 55.21%

Jacobe Smith def. Josiah HarrellKO R1 · 56.26%

Michel Pereira def. Zachary ReeseUD · 51.33%

Carlos Leal def. Chidi NjokuaniUD · 66.77%

Joselyne Edwards def. Nora CornolleSUB R2 · 70.48%

Punahele Soriano def. Ramiz BrahimajUD · 52.65%

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani def. Philip RoweUD · 55.12%

Jordan Leavitt def. Yadier del ValleUD · 53.00%

PFL Champions Series 5

Feb 7 · 2/4

Usman Nurmagomedov def. Alfie DavisCKO R3 · 75.60%

Ramazan Kuramagomedov def. Shamil MusaevUD · 51.13%

Salamat Isbulaev def. Jesus PinedoTKO R1 · 67.08%

Amru Magomedov def. Kolton EnglundTKO R1 · 67.63%

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

Feb 7 · 7/10

Mario Bautista def. Vinicius OliveiraSUB R2 · 54.97%

Kyoji Horiguchi def. Amir AlbaziUD · 52.33%

Rizvan Kuniev def. Jailton AlmeidaUD · 76.12%

Michał Oleksiejczuk def. Marc-André BarriaultUD · 70.88%

Farid Basharat def. Jean MatsumotoUD · 50.18%

Dustin Jacoby def. Julius WalkerTKO R2 · 67.45%

Daniil Donchenko def. Alex MoronoUD · 69.51%

Javid Basharat def. Gianni VázquezUD · 56.58%

Wang Cong def. Eduarda MouraUD · 59.16%

Klaudia Syguła def. Priscila CachoeiraUD · 65.33%

UFC 325

Feb 1 · 5/8

Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego LopesUD · 50.22%

Benoît Saint Denis def. Dan HookerTKO R2 · 59.11%

Maurício Ruffy def. Rafael FizievTKO R2 · 50.07%

Tallison Teixeira def. Tai TuivasaUD · 71.04%

Quillan Salkilld def. Jamie MullarkeySUB R1 · 86.59%

Billy Elekana def. Junior TafaSUB R2 · 62.86%

Cameron Rowston def. Cody BrundageTKO R2 · 50.35%

Jonathan Micallef def. Oban ElliottCKO R2 · 60.89%

UFC 324

Jan 24 · 7/11

Justin Gaethje def. Paddy PimblettUD · 72.00%

Sean O'Malley def. Song YadongUD · 50.68%

Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Derrick LewisTKO R2 · 70.79%

Natália Silva def. Rose NamajunasUD · 61.84%

Jean Silva def. Arnold AllenUD · 54.44%

Umar Nurmagomedov def. Deiveson FigueiredoUD · 84.18%

Ateba Gautier def. Andrey PulyaevUD · 70.02%

Nikita Krylov def. Modestas BukauskasKO R3 · 77.03%

Alex Perez def. Charles JohnsonTKO R1 · 72.07%

Josh Hokit def. Denzel FreemanTKO R1 · 50.67%

Ty Miller def. Adam FugittTKO R1 · 83.76%

PFL Champions Series 4

Dec 13 · 3/3

Vadim Nemkov def. Renan FerreiraSUB R1 · 83.46%

Cris Cyborg def. Sara CollinsSUB R3 · 60.95%

Patrick Habirora def. Kevin JoussetKO R1 · 75.99%

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape

Dec 13 · 7/7

Manel Kape def. Brandon RoyvalKO R1 · 64.38%

Kevin Vallejos def. Giga ChikadzeKO R2 · 61.99%

Cezary Oleksiejczuk def. César AlmeidaUD · 73.88%

Melquizael Costa def. Morgan CharrièreKO R1 · 64.26%

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Marcus Buchecha · DrawR3 · 66.42%

Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil MagnySUB R1 · 76.22%

Steven Asplund def. Sean SharafTKO R2 · 61.16%

Luana Santos def. Melissa CrodenUD · 69.12%

UFC 323

Dec 6 · 8/12

Petr Yan def. Merab DvalishviliUD · 53.40%

Joshua Van def. Alexandre PantojaTKO R1 · 66.92%

Tatsuro Taira def. Brandon MorenoTKO R2 · 57.69%

Payton Talbott def. Henry CejudoUD · 58.56%

Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov · DrawR3 · 68.66%

Manuel Torres def. Grant DawsonTKO R1 · 67.77%

Chris Duncan def. Terrance McKinneySUB R1 · 64.33%

Maycee Barber def. Karine SilvaUD · 66.80%

Farès Ziam def. Nazim SadykhovTKO R2 · 71.72%

Brunno Ferreira def. Marvin VettoriUD · 52.95%

Jalin Turner def. Edson BarbozaTKO R1 · 55.34%

Iwo Baraniewski def. İbo AslanKO R1 · 55.75%

Mairon Santos def. Muhammad NaimovTKO R3 · 65.54%

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

Nov 22 · 6/11

Arman Tsarukyan def. Dan HookerSUB R2 · 83.26%

Ian Machado Garry def. Belal MuhammadUD · 53.18%

Volkan Oezdemir def. Alonzo MenifieldKO R1 · 65.72%

Myktybek Orolbai def. Jack HermanssonKO R1 · 82.63%

Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Shamil GazievKO R1 · 67.76%

Kyoji Horiguchi def. Tagir UlanbekovCKO R3 · 58.68%

Nicolas Dalby def. Saygid IzagakhmaevUD · 55.50%

Asu Almabayev def. Alex PerezSUB R3 · 80.92%

Aleksandre Topuria def. Bekzat AlmakhanUD · 61.09%

Nurullo Aliev def. Shaqueme RockUD · 66.81%

Denzel Freeman def. Marek BujłoUD · 52.34%

UFC 322

Nov 15 · 10/11

Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della MaddalenaUD · 55.38%

Valentina Shevchenko def. Zhang WeiliUD · 50.70%

Michael Morales def. Sean BradyTKO R1 · 61.86%

Carlos Prates def. Leon EdwardsKO R2 · 60.94%

Benoît Saint Denis def. Beneil DariushKO R1 · 70.81%

Bo Nickal def. Rodolfo VieiraKO R3 · 57.58%

Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman KopylovUD · 63.84%

Erin Blanchfield def. Tracy CortezSUB R2 · 55.25%

Kyle Daukaus def. Gerald MeerschaertSUB R1 · 80.11%

Fatima Kline def. Angela HillUD · 66.31%

Baisangur Susurkaev def. Eric McConicoKO R3 · 74.12%

Bonfim vs. Brown

Nov 8 · 8/11

Gabriel Bonfim def. Randy BrownTKO R2 · 64.21%

Joseph Morales def. Matt SchnellSUB R1 · 78.33%

Uroš Medić def. Muslim SalikhovTKO R1 · 59.51%

Chris Padilla def. Ismael BonfimTKO R2 · 66.28%

Christian Leroy Duncan def. Marco TulioKO R2 · 67.61%

Jamall Emmers def. Hyder AmilUD · 58.57%

Raoni Barcelos def. Ricky SimónUD · 67.71%

Jacqueline Cavalcanti def. Mayra Bueno SilvaUD · 73.86%

Denise Gomes def. Tecia PenningtonUD · 83.38%

Daniel Marcos def. Miles JohnsCKO R2 · 69.24%

Zachary Reese def. Jackson McVeySUB R2 · 56.61%

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama

Nov 1 · 4/7

Steve Garcia def. David OnamaTKO R1 · 52.76%

Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ante DelijaKO R1 · 66.54%

Jeremiah Wells def. Themba GorimboUD · 59.89%

Allan Nascimento def. Cody DurdenSUB R2 · 54.09%

Donte Johnson def. Sedriques DumasSUB R2 · 70.30%

Norma Dumont def. Ketlen VieiraUD · 57.88%

Talita Alencar def. Ariane CarnelossiSUB R3 · 61.56%

UFC 321

Oct 25 · 8/10

Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane · No contestR1 · 56.78%

Mackenzie Dern def. Virna JandirobaUD · 66.10%

Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario BautistaUD · 59.21%

Alexander Volkov def. Jailton AlmeidaUD · 63.17%

Azamat Murzakanov def. Aleksandar RakićTKO R1 · 69.52%

Quillan Salkilld def. Nasrat HaqparastKO R1 · 62.46%

Ikram Aliskerov def. Jun Yong ParkUD · 61.15%

Ľudovít Klein def. Mateusz RębeckiUD · 73.45%

Valter Walker def. Louie SutherlandSUB R1 · 77.87%

Nathaniel Wood def. Jose Miguel DelgadoUD · 54.29%

Hamdy Abdelwahab def. Chris BarnettUD · 67.21%

UFC Fight Night 262

Oct 18 · 6/11

Brendan Allen def. Reinier de RidderTKO R4 · 53.33%

Mike Malott def. Kevin HollandUD · 62.98%

Aiemann Zahabi def. Marlon VeraUD · 59.04%

Manon Fiorot def. Jasmine JasudaviciusTKO R1 · 52.27%

Charles Jourdain def. Davey GrantSUB R1 · 62.62%

Kyle Nelson def. Matt FrevolaUD · 63.09%

Drew Dober def. Kyle PrepolecTKO R3 · 54.65%

Aori Qileng def. Cody GibsonTKO R1 · 52.32%

Bruno Gustavo da Silva def. Park Hyun-sungSUB R3 · 57.41%

Yousri Belgaroui def. Azamat BekoevTKO R3 · 68.83%

Melissa Croden def. Tainara LisboaTKO R3 · 53.53%

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Oct 11 · 4/7

Charles Oliveira def. Mateusz GamrotSUB R2 · 70.10%

Deiveson Figueiredo def. Montel JacksonUD · 70.71%

Joel Álvarez def. Vicente LuqueUD · 59.85%

Mário Pinto def. Jhonata DinizTKO R2 · 73.33%

Kaan Ofli def. Ricardo RamosSUB R1 · 66.13%

Vitor Petrino def. Thomas PetersenKO R3 · 73.85%

Julia Polastri def. Karolina KowalkiewiczTKO R3 · 64.72%

UFC 320

Oct 4 · 7/11

Alex Pereira def. Magomed AnkalaevTKO R1 · 69.88%

Merab Dvalishvili def. Cory SandhagenUD · 73.01%

Jiří Procházka def. Khalil Rountree Jr.KO R3 · 62.15%

Youssef Zalal def. Josh EmmettSUB R1 · 68.91%

Joe Pyfer def. Abusupiyan MagomedovSUB R2 · 67.78%

Jakub Wikłacz def. Patchy MixUD · 81.62%

Edmen Shahbazyan def. André MunizKO R1 · 64.16%

Yana Santos def. Macy ChiassonUD · 66.30%

Farid Basharat def. Chris GutiérrezUD · 57.54%

Ramiz Brahimaj def. Austin VanderfordSUB R2 · 67.77%

Veronica Hardy def. Brogan WalkerUD · 75.18%

Calibration

Favorite win rate by predicted probability. Tick = expected rate; bar width tracks bucket size.

0255075100

56%

72%

82%

83%

50–60%

n=176

60–70%

n=177

70–80%

n=87

80–100%

n=24