Prediction Accuracy

MartialBot's pre-fight picks, scored live against actual boxing results. Every bout below shows the pick the model published before the fight.

Last 365 daysOct 6, 2025 – Oct 5, 2026

86.0%

of picks called the winner

−0.8 pts vs model test (86.8%) · log loss 0.392, +0.012 vs test (0.380)

179

fights scored

events

154 hits25 misses

4 draws or no contests not scored — there was no winner to call.

Picks by confidence

One mark per pick at the favorite's predicted win probability — misses stack on top.

hitmiss

50%60708090100%

Calibration

How often the favorite won at each confidence level. Bars should end on their ticks: above means the model was too cautious, below too confident.

favorite's win ratemodel's average predictionwider bar = more fights

0255075100

69%

68%

97%

88%

98%

50–60%

n=36

60–70%

n=22

70–80%

n=35

80–90%

n=40

90–100%

n=46

Picks by event

Newest first, predicted bouts in card order. The model's pick is in bold — bold on the left means it called the winner.

hit miss not scored (draw/NC)

Whittaker vs. Wallace

Oct 3 · 1/1

Ben Whittaker def. Conor WallaceUD · 71.83%

Inoue vs. Nasukawa

Sep 27 · 2/3

Takuma Inoue def. Tenshin NasukawaUD · 53.62%

Ricardo Malajika def. Tomoya TsuboiSD · 59.73%

Sam Goodman def. Ryosuke NishidaUD · 57.59%

Richards vs. Kalajdžić

Sep 26 · 2/3

Johnny Fisher def. Michael PirottonMD · 64.25%

Lee Cutler def. Louis GreeneUD · 63.02%

Radivoje Kalajdžić def. Craig RichardsUD · 63.40%

Davies vs. Collins

Sep 26 · 3/3

Liam Davies def. Nathaniel CollinsRTD R7 · 69.13%

Gerome Warburton def. Nathan HeaneyUD · 74.53%

Luke McCormack def. Kay ProspereKO R10 · 90.47%

Kameda vs. Hernández

Sep 23 · 1/1

Sebastián Hernández def. Kyonosuke KamedaSD · 80.14%

Cruz vs. Bravo

Sep 19 · 1/1

Isaac Cruz def. Nestor BravoKO R6 · 72.76%

Garcia vs. Benn

Sep 12 · 4/5

Jai Opetaia def. Noel GevorTKO R9 · 97.04%

Ryan Garcia def. Conor BennTKO R2 · 50.45%

Andres Cortes def. Mark MagsayoUD · 54.33%

Alexis Rocha def. José RamírezUD · 66.15%

Vlad Panin def. Dakota LingerTKO R4 · 89.43%

Santillan vs. Baraou

Sep 11 · 3/3

Luis Alberto Lopez def. Daniel LugoKO R3 · 90.19%

Abass Baraou def. Giovani SantillanMD · 70.31%

Jorge de Jesus def. Mercito GestaMD · 95.46%

Taylor vs. Pili

Sep 5 · 2/2

Katie Taylor def. Flora PiliUD · 70.45%

Paddy Donovan def. Tyrone McKennaTKO R4 · 93.73%

Ruiz Jr. vs. Knyba

Sep 4 · 2/3

Vito Mielnicki Jr. def. Austin WilliamsUD · 53.69%

Eridson Garcia def. Alan ChavesUD · 85.33%

Damian Knyba def. Andy Ruiz Jr.UD · 61.57%

Perez vs. Mchunu

Sep 3 · 2/2

Jhon Orobio def. Antonio MoranTKO R4 · 95.74%

Lenar Perez def. Thabiso MchunuTKO R8 · 82.58%

Lara vs. Ornelas

Aug 29 · 1/1

Mauricio Lara def. Carlos OrnelasTKO R2 · 79.79%

Cameron vs. Mayer

Aug 29 · 5/5

Chantelle Cameron def. Mikaela MayerUD · 72.46%

Caroline Dubois def. Amelia MooreUD · 88.24%

Terri Harper def. Miranda ReyesTKO R2 · 51.45%

Reina Tellez def. Jessica BarryPTS · 62.09%

Hamza Uddin def. Jemsi KibazangeTKO R2 · 97.41%

Martinez vs. Plantic

Aug 29 · 3/5

Lester Martinez def. Luka PlanticTKO R10 · 58.83%

Najee Lopez def. Juan CarrilloTKO R9 · 59.49%

Jordan White def. Luis Torres ValenzuelaTKO R8 · 55.29%

Carlos Ocampo def. Weljon MindoroTKO R9 · 81.53%

Ramon Cardenas def. Leonardo CarrilloSD · 71.48%

Itauma vs. Hrgović

Aug 29 · 2/4

Nelson Hysa def. Thomas NarmoTKO R2 · 70.02%

Filip Hrgović def. Moses ItaumaTKO R9 · 89.38%

Constantin Ursu def. Ben VaughanTKO R8 · 66.50%

Sam Noakes def. Denys BerinchykUD · 86.00%

Tszyu vs. Mahoney

Aug 26 · 1/1

Nikita Tszyu vs Ben Mahoney · Draw72.48%

Callum Peters def. Blake WellsTKO R8 · 86.54%

Liddard vs. Morello

Aug 22 · 1/1

George Liddard def. Dario MorelloRTD R8 · 80.32%

Romero vs. Lopez

Aug 22 · 3/4

Teófimo López def. Rolando RomeroMD · 91.52%

Carlos Utria def. Israel MercadoSD · 85.93%

Yoenlis Hernández def. Francisco Daniel VerónMD · 75.63%

Gary Antonio Russell def. Victor SantillanUD · 62.04%

Shields vs. Scott

Aug 15 · 2/2

Claressa Shields def. Kaye ScottTKO R6 · 97.02%

Atif Oberlton def. Roamer Alexis AnguloUD · 94.47%

Teremoana vs. Savage

Aug 12 · 1/2

Michael Zerafa def. Alejandro OrtizTKO R8 · 54.75%

Teremoana Teremoana def. DeAndre SavageKO R2 · 87.94%

Nyika vs. Masson

Aug 8 · 1/1

David Nyika def. Floyd MassonUD · 58.48%

McKenna vs. Oliha

Aug 8 · 3/4

Aaron McKenna def. Etinosa OlihaUD · 60.67%

Callum Walsh def. Tyler DennyUD · 97.37%

Connor Coyle def. Mark BeukeUD · 71.69%

Stephen McKenna def. Owen O'NeillTKO R1 · 80.67%

Williamson vs. Simpson 2

Aug 8 · 2/2

Callum Simpson def. Troy WilliamsonUD · 55.87%

Gradus Kraus def. Sean HemphillTKO R1 · 91.10%

O'Leary vs. Chamberlain

Aug 1 · 3/5

Royston Barney-Smith def. Reece BellottiUD · 97.35%

Mark Chamberlain def. Pierce O'LearyTKO R10 · 52.33%

Steven Cairns def. Senan KellyTKO R5 · 55.88%

Gary Cully def. Lee ReevesKO R10 · 58.23%

Seán McComb def. Miguel Cesario AntinPTS · 95.92%

Roach Jr. vs. Zepeda

Aug 1 · 6/6

Raymond Muratalla def. Robson ConceiçãoUD · 91.94%

William Zepeda def. Lamont Roach Jr.UD · 80.09%

Raúl Curiel def. Quinton RandallMD · 82.35%

Joel Iriarte def. Jorge LagunasTKO R8 · 94.56%

Charles Conwell def. Paul KrollTKO R9 · 79.61%

Gael Cabrera def. Francisco Pedroza PortilloUD · 97.50%

Berlanga vs. Butler

Jul 26 · 5/5

Richardson Hitchins def. Ricardo SalasUD · 84.97%

Jalil Hackett def. Sergiy DerevyanchenkoUD · 88.80%

Edgar Berlanga Jr. def. Steven ButlerTKO R7 · 75.82%

Vladyslav Sirenko def. Otto WallinKO R10 · 79.06%

Kashaun Davis def. Mihai NistorUD · 86.87%

Spence Jr. vs. Tszyu

Jul 26 · 3/3

Tim Tszyu def. Errol Spence Jr.UD · 50.33%

Callum Peters def. Ivan Ricardo ActisTKO R7 · 68.12%

Ahmad Reda def. Paul FlemingUD · 96.08%

Joshua vs. Prenga

Jul 25 · 6/6

Hamzah Sheeraz def. Simon ZachenhuberMD · 86.89%

Josh Kelly def. Caoimhín AgyarkoUD · 61.38%

Anthony Joshua def. Kristian PrengaKO R2 · 93.00%

Jacob Bank def. Pawel AugustUD · 71.63%

Reito Tsutsumi def. Alvino HerreraTKO R2 · 67.73%

Nishant Dev def. Cesar DiazTKO R1 · 87.10%

Fury vs. Wach

Jul 24 · 1/1

Tyson Fury def. Mariusz WachRTD R7 · 99.26%

Masuda vs. Higa

Jul 20 · 3/3

Kenshiro Teraji def. Israel GonzalezUD · 94.00%

Shokichi Iwata def. Erik BadilloTKO R11 · 55.82%

Riku Masuda def. Daigo HigaSD · 80.72%

Eubank vs. Papot

Jul 18 · 1/1

David Papot def. Harlem EubankUD · 55.64%

Pacheco vs. Aleem

Jul 18 · 3/3

Diego Pacheco def. Immanuwel AleemTKO R11 · 96.79%

Albert Gonzalez def. Aarón AlamedaKO R2 · 74.29%

Andy Cruz def. Abraham MontoyaTKO R3 · 94.21%

Gassiev vs. Kadiru

Jul 11 · 2/2

Murat Gassiev def. Peter KadiruTKO R6 · 77.86%

Artem Suslenkov def. Joe JoyceTKO R11 · 75.93%

Mason vs. Bell

Jul 4 · 2/2

Bruce Carrington def. Rene PalaciosUD · 74.15%

Abdullah Mason def. Albert BellTKO R12 · 94.39%

Valenzuela vs. Santos

Jun 28 · 2/3

José Valenzuela def. Edwin De Los SantosKO R2 · 63.18%

Omar Trinidad def. Jerwin AncajasUD · 55.67%

Cain Sandoval def. Brandun LeeMD · 50.20%

Zayas vs. Ennis

Jun 27 · 3/3

Jaron Ennis def. Xander ZayasTKO R7 · 50.18%

Emiliano Vargas def. Bryce MillsTKO R4 · 80.34%

Ben Whittaker def. Richard RiveraTKO R2 · 95.85%

Crocker vs. Paro

Jun 24 · 1/1

Liam Paro def. Lewis CrockerUD · 55.79%

Collazo vs. Valdez

Jun 20 · 1/1

Oscar Collazo def. Neider ValdezKO R2 · 96.20%

H2O vs. Diaz

Jun 19 · 2/2

Ernesto Mercado def. Juan Carlos BurgosKO R2 · 98.84%

Ashton Sylve def. Joseph DiazUD · 85.90%

Vargas vs. Rodríguez

Jun 13 · 1/1

Jesse Rodríguez def. Antonio VargasKO R6 · 98.73%

Yabuki vs. Calixto

Jun 6 · 2/3

Masamichi Yabuki def. Rene CalixtoR12 · 81.28%

Andrew Moloney def. Willibaldo GarcíaR12 · 73.46%

John Riel Casimero def. Luis NeryR4 · 65.22%

Billam-Smith vs. Rozicki

Jun 6 · 2/2

Chris Billam-Smith def. Ryan RozickiRTD R7 · 52.30%

Cheavon Clarke def. Jack MasseyTKO R7 · 75.64%

Bivol vs. Eifert

May 30 · 1/1

Dmitry Bivol def. Michael EifertUD · 90.57%

Trujillo vs. Marin

May 30 · 2/2

Guillermo Rigondeaux def. Jose VelasquezUD · 81.95%

Alexander Espinoza def. Yuriorkis GamboaSD · 70.39%

Foster vs. Ford

May 30 · 2/2

O'Shaquie Foster def. Raymond FordMD · 55.56%

Javon Woodard Jr. def. Miguel FloresKO R8 · 75.59%

Usyk vs. Rico

May 23 · 3/3

Oleksandr Usyk def. Rico VerhoevenTKO R11 · 97.87%

Frank Sanchez def. Richard TorrezKO R2 · 50.44%

Jack Catterall def. Shakhram GiyasovUD · 87.73%

Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk

May 10 · 0/1

Shane Mosley Jr. def. Serhii BohachukTKO R6 · 53.00%

Wardley vs. Dubois

May 9 · 1/3

Daniel Dubois def. Fabio WardleyTKO R11 · 65.18%

Bradley Rea def. Liam CameronTKO R4 · 88.62%

Zak Chelli def. David Morrell Jr.TKO R10 · 97.01%

Ramirez vs. Benavidez

May 2 · 3/3

David Benavidez def. Gilberto RamirezKO R6 · 79.80%

Jaime Munguia def. Armando ResendizUD · 89.33%

Oscar Duarte Jurado def. Angel FierroSD · 68.23%

Inoue vs. Nakatani

May 2 · 2/2

Naoya Inoue def. Junto NakataniUD · 83.79%

Takuma Inoue def. Kazuto IokaUD · 74.31%

Miller vs. Pero

Apr 25 · 1/2

Alan Chaves def. Miguel MadueñoKO R3 · 92.64%

Jarrell Miller def. Lenier PeroUD · 85.55%

Whittaker vs. Suarez

Apr 18 · 1/1

Ben Whittaker def. Braian Nahuel SuarezKO R1 · 90.82%

Estrada vs. Nasukawa

Apr 11 · 1/1

Tenshin Nasukawa def. Juan Francisco EstradaRTD R9 · 79.31%

Tomoya Tsuboi vs Pedro Guevara · No contest85.76%

Fury vs. Makhmudov

Apr 11 · 3/4

Conor Benn def. Regis PrograisUD · 58.33%

Tyson Fury def. Arslanbek MakhmudovUD · 84.01%

Justis Huni def. Frazer ClarkeMD · 82.21%

Pawel August def. Simon ZachenhuberPTS · 58.34%

Cortes vs. Garcia

Apr 5 · 1/2

Andres Cortes def. Eridson GarciaUD · 58.19%

Azat Hovhannisyan def. Eduardo BaezMD · 52.31%

Riley vs. Masternak

Apr 4 · 3/3

Denzel Bentley def. Endry SaavedraTKO R7 · 63.13%

Deontay Wilder def. Derek ChisoraSD · 76.54%

Viddal Riley def. Mateusz MasternakUD · 92.77%

Navarrete vs. Nunez

Feb 28 · 1/2

Emanuel Navarrete def. Eduardo NunezTKO R11 · 84.11%

Abel Ramos def. Tahmir SmallsSD · 88.52%

Barrios vs. Garcia

Feb 21 · 4/4

Ryan Garcia def. Mario BarriosUD · 68.23%

Gary Antuanne Russell def. Andy HiraokaUD · 64.85%

Bektemir Melikuziev def. Sena AgbekoTKO R7 · 96.36%

Amari Jones def. Luis AriasTKO R4 · 94.22%

Frank Martin vs Nahir Albright · Draw75.43%

Inoue vs. Picasso

Dec 27 · 2/2

Naoya Inoue def. David PicassoUD · 95.35%

Junto Nakatani def. Sebastián HernándezUD · 96.69%

Yabuki vs. Alvarado

Dec 27 · 1/1

Masamichi Yabuki def. Felix AlvaradoKO R12 · 74.64%

Paul vs. Joshua

Dec 19 · 2/2

Anthony Joshua def. Jake PaulKO R6 · 67.88%

Anderson Silva def. Tyron WoodleyTKO R2 · 79.71%

Pacheco vs. Sadjo

Dec 13 · 3/3

Joe Cordina def. Gabriel Flores Jr.UD · 58.75%

Diego Pacheco def. Kevin Lele SadjoUD · 90.60%

Ernesto Mercado def. Antonio MoranKO R6 · 95.35%

Cruz vs. Roach

Dec 6 · 5/5

O'Shaquie Foster def. Stephen Fulton Jr.UD · 54.93%

Erislandy Lara def. Johan GonzalezUD · 96.23%

Isaac Cruz vs Lamont Roach Jr. · Draw63.89%

Jesús Ramos Jr. def. Shane Mosley Jr.UD · 80.35%

Isaac Lucero def. Roberto Valenzuela Jr.TKO R8 · 86.54%

Frank Martin def. Rances BarthelemyKO R4 · 83.67%

Opetaia vs. Cinkara

Dec 6 · 1/1

Jai Opetaia def. Huseyin CinkaraKO R8 · 99.32%

Nasukawa vs. Inoue

Nov 24 · 2/2

Takuma Inoue def. Tenshin NasukawaUD · 50.64%

Tomoya Tsuboi def. Carlos CuadrasTKO R8 · 75.01%

Benavidez vs. Yarde

Nov 22 · 4/4

Jesse Rodríguez def. Fernando MartínezKO R10 · 91.33%

Devin Haney def. Brian Norman Jr.UD · 78.84%

David Benavidez def. Anthony YardeTKO R7 · 96.99%

Abdullah Mason def. Sam NoakesUD · 79.85%

Eubank Jr. vs. Benn

Nov 15 · 3/3

Adam Azim def. Kurt ScobyTKO R12 · 95.75%

Jack Catterall def. Ekow EssumanTKO R11 · 70.93%

Conor Benn def. Chris Eubank Jr.UD · 71.61%

Ortiz Jr. vs. Lubin

Nov 8 · 1/1

Vergil Ortiz Jr. def. Erickson LubinKO R2 · 88.18%

Buatsi vs. Parker

Nov 1 · 1/2

Lyndon Arthur def. Bradley ReaMD · 54.20%

Joshua Buatsi def. Zach ParkerMD · 84.94%

Parker vs. Wardley

Oct 25 · 0/1

Fabio Wardley def. Joseph ParkerTKO R11 · 58.82%

Ennis vs. Lima

Oct 11 · 1/2

Jaron Ennis def. Uisma LimaTKO R1 · 92.13%

Guido Vianello def. Alexis BarriereKO R5 · 62.89%

Allen vs. Makhmudov

Oct 11 · 2/2

Josh Padley def. Reece BellottiUD · 76.98%

Arslanbek Makhmudov def. David AllenUD · 86.29%