Prediction Accuracy

MartialBot's pre-fight picks, scored live against actual boxing results. Every bout below shows the pick the model published before the fight.

Last 365 daysOct 4, 2025 – Oct 3, 2026

85.5%

of picks called the winner

+1.0 pts vs model test (84.5%) · log loss 0.394 (test 0.385)

179

fights scored

events

153 hits26 misses

4 draws or no contests not scored — there was no winner to call.

Picks by confidence

One mark per pick at the favorite's predicted win probability — misses stack on top.

hitmiss

50%60708090100%

Picks by event

Newest first, predicted bouts in card order. The model's pick is in bold — bold on the left means it called the winner.

hit miss not scored (draw/NC)

Whittaker vs. Wallace

Oct 3 · 1/1

Ben Whittaker def. Conor WallaceUD · 79.25%

Inoue vs. Nasukawa

Sep 27 · 2/3

Takuma Inoue def. Tenshin NasukawaUD · 58.28%

Ricardo Malajika def. Tomoya TsuboiSD · 66.21%

Sam Goodman def. Ryosuke NishidaUD · 51.68%

Davies vs. Collins

Sep 26 · 3/3

Liam Davies def. Nathaniel CollinsRTD R7 · 73.56%

Gerome Warburton def. Nathan HeaneyUD · 75.40%

Luke McCormack def. Kay ProspereKO R10 · 89.44%

Richards vs. Kalajdžić

Sep 26 · 2/3

Johnny Fisher def. Michael PirottonMD · 58.14%

Lee Cutler def. Louis GreeneUD · 62.24%

Radivoje Kalajdžić def. Craig RichardsUD · 54.85%

Kameda vs. Hernández

Sep 23 · 1/1

Sebastián Hernández def. Kyonosuke KamedaSD · 74.79%

Cruz vs. Bravo

Sep 19 · 1/1

Isaac Cruz def. Nestor BravoKO R6 · 78.28%

Garcia vs. Benn

Sep 12 · 4/5

Jai Opetaia def. Noel GevorTKO R9 · 97.24%

Ryan Garcia def. Conor BennTKO R2 · 50.74%

Andres Cortes def. Mark MagsayoUD · 54.09%

Alexis Rocha def. José RamírezUD · 58.49%

Vlad Panin def. Dakota LingerTKO R4 · 86.82%

Santillan vs. Baraou

Sep 11 · 3/3

Luis Alberto Lopez def. Daniel LugoKO R3 · 90.85%

Abass Baraou def. Giovani SantillanMD · 70.29%

Jorge de Jesus def. Mercito GestaMD · 94.88%

Taylor vs. Pili

Sep 5 · 2/2

Katie Taylor def. Flora PiliUD · 74.57%

Paddy Donovan def. Tyrone McKennaTKO R4 · 94.66%

Ruiz Jr. vs. Knyba

Sep 4 · 1/3

Vito Mielnicki Jr. def. Austin WilliamsUD · 52.11%

Eridson Garcia def. Alan ChavesUD · 82.75%

Damian Knyba def. Andy Ruiz Jr.UD · 52.89%

Perez vs. Mchunu

Sep 3 · 2/2

Jhon Orobio def. Antonio MoranTKO R4 · 94.17%

Lenar Perez def. Thabiso MchunuTKO R8 · 81.95%

Cameron vs. Mayer

Aug 29 · 4/5

Chantelle Cameron def. Mikaela MayerUD · 73.38%

Caroline Dubois def. Amelia MooreUD · 89.96%

Terri Harper def. Miranda ReyesTKO R2 · 52.77%

Reina Tellez def. Jessica BarryPTS · 61.04%

Hamza Uddin def. Jemsi KibazangeTKO R2 · 95.49%

Lara vs. Ornelas

Aug 29 · 1/1

Mauricio Lara def. Carlos OrnelasTKO R2 · 85.77%

Itauma vs. Hrgović

Aug 29 · 2/4

Filip Hrgović def. Moses ItaumaTKO R9 · 87.72%

Nelson Hysa def. Thomas NarmoTKO R2 · 74.20%

Constantin Ursu def. Ben VaughanTKO R8 · 66.81%

Sam Noakes def. Denys BerinchykUD · 82.70%

Martinez vs. Plantic

Aug 29 · 3/5

Lester Martinez def. Luka PlanticTKO R10 · 53.05%

Najee Lopez def. Juan CarrilloTKO R9 · 58.76%

Jordan White def. Luis Torres ValenzuelaTKO R8 · 51.22%

Carlos Ocampo def. Weljon MindoroTKO R9 · 82.73%

Ramon Cardenas def. Leonardo CarrilloSD · 68.83%

Tszyu vs. Mahoney

Aug 26 · 1/1

Nikita Tszyu vs Ben Mahoney · Draw75.45%

Callum Peters def. Blake WellsTKO R8 · 85.16%

Romero vs. Lopez

Aug 22 · 3/4

Teófimo López def. Rolando RomeroMD · 91.85%

Carlos Utria def. Israel MercadoSD · 81.22%

Yoenlis Hernández def. Francisco Daniel VerónMD · 71.87%

Gary Antonio Russell def. Victor SantillanUD · 57.74%

Liddard vs. Morello

Aug 22 · 1/1

George Liddard def. Dario MorelloRTD R8 · 81.03%

Shields vs. Scott

Aug 15 · 2/2

Claressa Shields def. Kaye ScottTKO R6 · 96.39%

Atif Oberlton def. Roamer Alexis AnguloUD · 94.48%

Teremoana vs. Savage

Aug 12 · 2/2

Michael Zerafa def. Alejandro OrtizTKO R8 · 50.19%

Teremoana Teremoana def. DeAndre SavageKO R2 · 84.97%

McKenna vs. Oliha

Aug 8 · 3/4

Aaron McKenna def. Etinosa OlihaUD · 53.97%

Callum Walsh def. Tyler DennyUD · 97.43%

Connor Coyle def. Mark BeukeUD · 61.08%

Stephen McKenna def. Owen O'NeillTKO R1 · 78.68%

Williamson vs. Simpson 2

Aug 8 · 1/2

Callum Simpson def. Troy WilliamsonUD · 54.52%

Gradus Kraus def. Sean HemphillTKO R1 · 87.59%

Nyika vs. Masson

Aug 8 · 1/1

David Nyika def. Floyd MassonUD · 61.31%

Roach Jr. vs. Zepeda

Aug 1 · 6/6

Raymond Muratalla def. Robson ConceiçãoUD · 89.70%

William Zepeda def. Lamont Roach Jr.UD · 84.41%

Raúl Curiel def. Quinton RandallMD · 73.45%

Joel Iriarte def. Jorge LagunasTKO R8 · 92.34%

Charles Conwell def. Paul KrollTKO R9 · 76.32%

Gael Cabrera def. Francisco Pedroza PortilloUD · 94.24%

O'Leary vs. Chamberlain

Aug 1 · 4/5

Royston Barney-Smith def. Reece BellottiUD · 97.01%

Mark Chamberlain def. Pierce O'LearyTKO R10 · 50.03%

Steven Cairns def. Senan KellyTKO R5 · 60.20%

Gary Cully def. Lee ReevesKO R10 · 59.43%

Seán McComb def. Miguel Cesario AntinPTS · 94.94%

Spence Jr. vs. Tszyu

Jul 26 · 2/3

Tim Tszyu def. Errol Spence Jr.UD · 63.43%

Callum Peters def. Ivan Ricardo ActisTKO R7 · 59.87%

Ahmad Reda def. Paul FlemingUD · 93.95%

Berlanga vs. Butler

Jul 26 · 5/5

Richardson Hitchins def. Ricardo SalasUD · 86.96%

Jalil Hackett def. Sergiy DerevyanchenkoUD · 81.33%

Edgar Berlanga Jr. def. Steven ButlerTKO R7 · 69.84%

Vladyslav Sirenko def. Otto WallinKO R10 · 72.52%

Kashaun Davis def. Mihai NistorUD · 85.78%

Joshua vs. Prenga

Jul 25 · 6/6

Hamzah Sheeraz def. Simon ZachenhuberMD · 88.93%

Josh Kelly def. Caoimhín AgyarkoUD · 69.83%

Anthony Joshua def. Kristian PrengaKO R2 · 92.33%

Jacob Bank def. Pawel AugustUD · 65.60%

Reito Tsutsumi def. Alvino HerreraTKO R2 · 59.30%

Nishant Dev def. Cesar DiazTKO R1 · 83.32%

Fury vs. Wach

Jul 24 · 1/1

Tyson Fury def. Mariusz WachRTD R7 · 99.22%

Masuda vs. Higa

Jul 20 · 3/3

Kenshiro Teraji def. Israel GonzalezUD · 91.69%

Shokichi Iwata def. Erik BadilloTKO R11 · 53.49%

Riku Masuda def. Daigo HigaSD · 76.06%

Eubank vs. Papot

Jul 18 · 1/1

David Papot def. Harlem EubankUD · 51.67%

Pacheco vs. Aleem

Jul 18 · 3/3

Diego Pacheco def. Immanuwel AleemTKO R11 · 96.42%

Albert Gonzalez def. Aarón AlamedaKO R2 · 68.69%

Andy Cruz def. Abraham MontoyaTKO R3 · 92.59%

Gassiev vs. Kadiru

Jul 11 · 2/2

Murat Gassiev def. Peter KadiruTKO R6 · 86.79%

Artem Suslenkov def. Joe JoyceTKO R11 · 72.21%

Mason vs. Bell

Jul 4 · 2/2

Bruce Carrington def. Rene PalaciosUD · 73.48%

Abdullah Mason def. Albert BellTKO R12 · 94.41%

Valenzuela vs. Santos

Jun 28 · 1/3

José Valenzuela def. Edwin De Los SantosKO R2 · 57.56%

Omar Trinidad def. Jerwin AncajasUD · 51.10%

Cain Sandoval def. Brandun LeeMD · 54.74%

Zayas vs. Ennis

Jun 27 · 3/3

Jaron Ennis def. Xander ZayasTKO R7 · 68.52%

Emiliano Vargas def. Bryce MillsTKO R4 · 74.64%

Ben Whittaker def. Richard RiveraTKO R2 · 95.25%

Crocker vs. Paro

Jun 24 · 1/1

Liam Paro def. Lewis CrockerUD · 52.24%

Collazo vs. Valdez

Jun 20 · 1/1

Oscar Collazo def. Neider ValdezKO R2 · 96.45%

H2O vs. Diaz

Jun 19 · 2/2

Ernesto Mercado def. Juan Carlos BurgosKO R2 · 98.90%

Ashton Sylve def. Joseph DiazUD · 85.04%

Vargas vs. Rodríguez

Jun 13 · 1/1

Jesse Rodríguez def. Antonio VargasKO R6 · 98.53%

Billam-Smith vs. Rozicki

Jun 6 · 2/2

Chris Billam-Smith def. Ryan RozickiRTD R7 · 57.26%

Cheavon Clarke def. Jack MasseyTKO R7 · 74.06%

Yabuki vs. Calixto

Jun 6 · 2/3

Masamichi Yabuki def. Rene CalixtoR12 · 86.52%

Andrew Moloney def. Willibaldo GarcíaR12 · 66.56%

John Riel Casimero def. Luis NeryR4 · 62.18%

Bivol vs. Eifert

May 30 · 1/1

Dmitry Bivol def. Michael EifertUD · 90.43%

Foster vs. Ford

May 30 · 2/2

O'Shaquie Foster def. Raymond FordMD · 63.28%

Javon Woodard Jr. def. Miguel FloresKO R8 · 77.13%

Trujillo vs. Marin

May 30 · 2/2

Guillermo Rigondeaux def. Jose VelasquezUD · 82.58%

Alexander Espinoza def. Yuriorkis GamboaSD · 70.44%

Usyk vs. Rico

May 23 · 3/3

Oleksandr Usyk def. Rico VerhoevenTKO R11 · 97.88%

Jack Catterall def. Shakhram GiyasovUD · 90.02%

Frank Sanchez def. Richard TorrezKO R2 · 53.23%

Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk

May 10 · 1/1

Shane Mosley Jr. def. Serhii BohachukTKO R6 · 50.86%

Wardley vs. Dubois

May 9 · 1/3

Daniel Dubois def. Fabio WardleyTKO R11 · 69.96%

Zak Chelli def. David Morrell Jr.TKO R10 · 97.71%

Bradley Rea def. Liam CameronTKO R4 · 87.36%

Inoue vs. Nakatani

May 2 · 2/2

Naoya Inoue def. Junto NakataniUD · 81.10%

Takuma Inoue def. Kazuto IokaUD · 73.36%

Ramirez vs. Benavidez

May 2 · 3/3

David Benavidez def. Gilberto RamirezKO R6 · 82.92%

Jaime Munguia def. Armando ResendizUD · 90.41%

Oscar Duarte Jurado def. Angel FierroSD · 75.71%

Miller vs. Pero

Apr 25 · 1/2

Alan Chaves def. Miguel MadueñoKO R3 · 87.81%

Jarrell Miller def. Lenier PeroUD · 77.63%

Whittaker vs. Suarez

Apr 18 · 1/1

Ben Whittaker def. Braian Nahuel SuarezKO R1 · 91.26%

Estrada vs. Nasukawa

Apr 11 · 1/1

Tenshin Nasukawa def. Juan Francisco EstradaRTD R9 · 75.42%

Tomoya Tsuboi vs Pedro Guevara · No contest82.67%

Fury vs. Makhmudov

Apr 11 · 3/4

Conor Benn def. Regis PrograisUD · 50.50%

Tyson Fury def. Arslanbek MakhmudovUD · 92.23%

Justis Huni def. Frazer ClarkeMD · 72.47%

Pawel August def. Simon ZachenhuberPTS · 56.77%

Cortes vs. Garcia

Apr 5 · 1/2

Andres Cortes def. Eridson GarciaUD · 65.42%

Azat Hovhannisyan def. Eduardo BaezMD · 51.44%

Riley vs. Masternak

Apr 4 · 3/3

Denzel Bentley def. Endry SaavedraTKO R7 · 59.71%

Deontay Wilder def. Derek ChisoraSD · 70.89%

Viddal Riley def. Mateusz MasternakUD · 90.44%

Navarrete vs. Nunez

Feb 28 · 1/2

Emanuel Navarrete def. Eduardo NunezTKO R11 · 85.74%

Abel Ramos def. Tahmir SmallsSD · 82.96%

Barrios vs. Garcia

Feb 21 · 4/4

Ryan Garcia def. Mario BarriosUD · 64.64%

Gary Antuanne Russell def. Andy HiraokaUD · 70.46%

Bektemir Melikuziev def. Sena AgbekoTKO R7 · 97.33%

Amari Jones def. Luis AriasTKO R4 · 92.32%

Frank Martin vs Nahir Albright · Draw75.85%

Inoue vs. Picasso

Dec 27 · 2/2

Naoya Inoue def. David PicassoUD · 94.44%

Junto Nakatani def. Sebastián HernándezUD · 96.78%

Yabuki vs. Alvarado

Dec 27 · 1/1

Masamichi Yabuki def. Felix AlvaradoKO R12 · 80.70%

Paul vs. Joshua

Dec 19 · 2/2

Anthony Joshua def. Jake PaulKO R6 · 66.00%

Anderson Silva def. Tyron WoodleyTKO R2 · 75.58%

Pacheco vs. Sadjo

Dec 13 · 3/3

Joe Cordina def. Gabriel Flores Jr.UD · 53.48%

Diego Pacheco def. Kevin Lele SadjoUD · 90.72%

Ernesto Mercado def. Antonio MoranKO R6 · 95.73%

Opetaia vs. Cinkara

Dec 6 · 1/1

Jai Opetaia def. Huseyin CinkaraKO R8 · 99.16%

Cruz vs. Roach

Dec 6 · 5/5

O'Shaquie Foster def. Stephen Fulton Jr.UD · 57.60%

Erislandy Lara def. Johan GonzalezUD · 97.48%

Isaac Cruz vs Lamont Roach Jr. · Draw72.96%

Jesús Ramos Jr. def. Shane Mosley Jr.UD · 79.23%

Isaac Lucero def. Roberto Valenzuela Jr.TKO R8 · 79.76%

Frank Martin def. Rances BarthelemyKO R4 · 83.46%

Nasukawa vs. Inoue

Nov 24 · 2/2

Takuma Inoue def. Tenshin NasukawaUD · 60.11%

Tomoya Tsuboi def. Carlos CuadrasTKO R8 · 65.00%

Benavidez vs. Yarde

Nov 22 · 4/4

Jesse Rodríguez def. Fernando MartínezKO R10 · 92.88%

Devin Haney def. Brian Norman Jr.UD · 74.28%

David Benavidez def. Anthony YardeTKO R7 · 97.32%

Abdullah Mason def. Sam NoakesUD · 84.04%

Eubank Jr. vs. Benn

Nov 15 · 3/3

Adam Azim def. Kurt ScobyTKO R12 · 96.12%

Jack Catterall def. Ekow EssumanTKO R11 · 78.05%

Conor Benn def. Chris Eubank Jr.UD · 62.94%

Ortiz Jr. vs. Lubin

Nov 8 · 1/1

Vergil Ortiz Jr. def. Erickson LubinKO R2 · 91.37%

Buatsi vs. Parker

Nov 1 · 2/2

Lyndon Arthur def. Bradley ReaMD · 50.06%

Joshua Buatsi def. Zach ParkerMD · 85.69%

Parker vs. Wardley

Oct 25 · 0/1

Fabio Wardley def. Joseph ParkerTKO R11 · 61.74%

Allen vs. Makhmudov

Oct 11 · 2/2

Josh Padley def. Reece BellottiUD · 77.08%

Arslanbek Makhmudov def. David AllenUD · 76.24%

Ennis vs. Lima

Oct 11 · 1/2

Jaron Ennis def. Uisma LimaTKO R1 · 94.10%

Guido Vianello def. Alexis BarriereKO R5 · 60.49%

Calibration

Favorite win rate by predicted probability. Tick = expected rate; bar width tracks bucket size.

0255075100

62%

81%

94%

50–60%

n=37

60–70%

n=26

70–80%

n=35

80–100%

n=81