Prediction Accuracy

MartialBot's pre-fight picks, scored live against MMA results from the last 30 days. Every bout below shows the pick the model published before the fight.

Result accuracy

59.2%

29 of 49 picks called the winner

Fights scored

across 5 events

Picks by confidence

One mark per pick at the favorite's predicted win probability — misses stack on top.

hitmiss

50%60708090100%

Picks by event

Newest first, predicted bouts in card order. The model's pick is in bold — bold on the left means it called the winner.

hit miss not scored (draw/NC)

UFC Fight Night 287

Sep 5 · 6/11

Salahdine Parnasse def. Dan HookerTKO R1 · 77.87%

Axel Sola def. Farès ZiamKO R1 · 68.42%

Michael Page def. Nursulton RuziboevUD · 60.76%

Daniil Donchenko def. Punahele SorianoUD · 61.41%

Kurtis Campbell def. Trevor PeekSUB R3 · 69.50%

Losene Keita def. Muhammad NaimovKO R1 · 66.87%

Felipe Lima def. Morgan CharrièreUD · 73.29%

Mário Pinto def. Ryan SpannTKO R2 · 71.39%

Modestas Bukauskas def. Oumar SyTKO R2 · 57.13%

Pavel Andrusca def. Nathaniel WoodUD · 59.71%

Nora Cornolle def. Klaudia SygułaUD · 60.69%

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Aug 29 · 7/10

Song Yadong def. Umar NurmagomedovKO R2 · 68.46%

Denise Gomes def. Yan XiaonanKO R1 · 78.27%

Kai Asakura def. Aori QilengTKO R2 · 63.82%

Su Mudaerji def. Alex PerezUD · 71.87%

Liu Ce def. Levi Rodrigues Jr.KO R1 · 55.21%

Bilal Hasan def. Nilson RojasKO R2 · 65.68%

André Lima def. Namsrai BatbayarSUB R3 · 60.26%

Rei Tsuruya def. Kevin BorjasSUB R1 · 61.53%

Sean Woodson def. Jack JenkinsUD · 70.15%

Julia Polastri def. Xiong JingnanKO R1 · 57.52%

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Aug 22 · 6/11

Gregory Rodrigues def. Anthony HernandezUD · 62.04%

Vitor Petrino def. Serghei SpivacUD · 67.11%

Reinier de Ridder def. Roman DolidzeTKO R1 · 56.79%

MarQuel Mederos def. Mason JonesTKO R2 · 58.59%

Carli Judice def. Jeisla ChavesTKO R1 · 50.30%

Jamall Emmers def. Lerryan DouglasTKO R1 · 53.01%

Shamil Gaziev def. Kennedy NzechukwuKO R1 · 65.58%

Chris Padilla def. Nasrat HaqparastCKO R3 · 51.98%

Stanley Dorsainvil def. Gauge YoungUD · 60.32%

Jackson McVey def. Wes SchultzTKO R1 · 63.82%

Shanelle Dyer def. Elise ReedTKO R3 · 76.53%

PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira

Aug 22 · 4/5

Cris Cyborg def. Ketlen VieiraUD · 60.80%

Gadzhi Rabadanov def. Tracy ReederTKO R1 · 67.09%

Sabrinna de Sousa def. Taila SantosUD · 54.55%

Daniel Marcos def. Magomed MagomedovTKO R3 · 77.57%

Dakota Bush def. Morquez ForestUD · 58.07%

UFC 330

Aug 15 · 6/12

Islam Makhachev def. Ian Machado GarryUD · 75.08%

Mackenzie Dern def. Gillian RobertsonUD · 67.13%

Jalin Turner def. Kauê FernandesKO R1 · 50.31%

Dustin Stoltzfus def. Mansur Abdul-MalikSUB R2 · 69.12%

Esteban Ribovics def. Edson BarbozaTKO R2 · 71.18%

Chidi Njokuani def. Joel ÁlvarezUD · 80.48%

Charles Johnson def. Eduardo HenriqueSUB R3 · 55.77%

Donte Johnson def. Eric McConico Jr.KO R1 · 78.81%

Tresean Gore def. Vicente LuqueUD · 59.10%

Lucas Fernando def. Rafael TobiasTKO R3 · 53.51%

Neil Magny def. Ramiz BrahimajTKO R2 · 69.52%

Jeremiah Wells def. Myktybek OrolbaiCKO R3 · 77.26%

Calibration

Favorite win rate by predicted probability. Tick = expected rate; bar width tracks bucket size.

0255075100

47%

52%

92%

50–60%

n=15

60–70%

n=21

70–80%

n=12

80–100%

n=1